sizing inputs
optional — kelly reference
results — estimates
This trade is too large for your risk budget — skipping is a position.
kelly reference — not a recommendation
Enter an estimated win rate and reward/risk ratio to see the Kelly fraction and quarter-Kelly.
assumptions
Sizing assumes a defined-risk trade where the entered max loss per contract is the true worst case (including the 100-share multiplier). Contracts are rounded down — never up. Kelly figures use the simplified formula f = W − (1 − W) / R on independent, repeated bets.
Educational math only. Not financial advice. All results are estimates.
Daily volatility brief
One email every market morning: regime read, IV movers, catalyst calendar. Free, unsubscribe anytime.