OPTIONS CALCULATOR
Probability of Profit calculator
Estimate the odds a single-leg option finishes profitable — plus the chance it finishes in-the-money and the chance it touches your strike before expiry. Max risk still comes first: know it before you love the trade.
Probability of profit (at expiry)
23.4%
Breakeven ≈ 107.00
Finish in-the-money
29.6%
Prob. of touching strike
61.1%
A lognormal estimate from your inputs. Higher IV or more days widens the distribution — which lowers the odds for out-of-the-money long options and raises the odds a strike is touched before expiry. Probability of touch is always ≥ probability of finishing there.
FAQ
What is probability of profit (PoP)?
The modeled chance a position is profitable at expiration, based on the underlying's breakeven and a lognormal distribution of prices implied by your volatility and days-to-expiry inputs.
Why is probability of touch higher than finishing in-the-money?
A price can trade through a level intraday and then move back. Touch counts any breach before expiry; finishing ITM counts only the expiration price — so touch is always at least as high.
Is this a guarantee?
No. It's an educational estimate from a simplified model. Real markets have jumps, changing volatility, and events. Verify with your broker and never treat a probability as certainty.
Daily volatility brief
One email every market morning: regime read, IV movers, catalyst calendar. Free, unsubscribe anytime.
Educational research only. Not financial advice.