MARKET REGIME · 2026-07-18

Today's market regime

LIVE + SAMPLE FIELDS · updated Sat, 18 Jul 2026 01:14:49 GMT

Trending Bearscore 47.25 · confidence 46%

Momentum down — bearish defined-risk structures fit; knife-catching with long calls fights the tape.

VIX 16.73, trend -0.55, breadth 25%, 2s10s 0.2pp -> trending_bear (score 47.25, next best high_vol_chop at 44.74).

Snapshot

VIX

16.73

+6.76%

US Dollar Index

120.50

-0.21%

SPY · S&P 500 ETF

743.29

-0.99%

QQQ · Nasdaq-100 ETF

695.33

-1.50%

IWM · Russell 2000 ETF

294.04

-0.52%

TLT · 20+ Year Treasury ET

84.52

+0.37%

WTI Crude Oil

70.67

-0.46%

Gold

2675.44

+0.96%

Bitcoin

105383.20

+1.33%

Strategy families that fit this regime

Educational context, not a recommendation. Every idea still needs its own liquidity, catalyst and risk check.

Tends to fit

  • ✓put debit spread
  • ✓call credit spread
  • ✓long put (small, per Kelly cap)

Tends to fight the tape

  • ⚠put credit spread
  • ⚠knife-catching with long calls

Macro calendar (8)

2026-07-20Initial Jobless Claims · cons 225k · prior 222kLOW
2026-07-22Retail Sales · cons +0.3% m/m · prior +0.1% m/mMEDIUM
2026-07-2510-Year Treasury Note Auction · cons Bid-to-cover ~2.5x · prior 2.56xMEDIUM
2026-07-26CPI (Consumer Price Index) · cons +0.2% m/m · prior +0.3% m/mHIGH
2026-07-26Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs Report) · cons +165k · prior +180kHIGH
2026-07-26GDP (Advance Estimate) · cons +2.1% annualized · prior +2.4% annualizedMEDIUM
2026-07-28Core PCE Price Index · cons +0.2% m/m · prior +0.2% m/mHIGH
2026-08-05FOMC Rate Decision + Press Conference · cons Rates unchanged · prior Rates unchangedHIGH
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Educational market intelligence only. Regime labels and strategy families are model output for context, not financial advice or a recommendation. Market data may be delayed or incomplete; the 2s10s curve input uses a neutral placeholder pending a live yield feed. Verify with your broker. Methodology.